More Fomenting Former President Chronicles

This is the political equivalent of beating yourself with a hammer.  Bill needs to just walk away before he destroys his wife's White House bid.  Look, I don't support her, but give the woman a break.  Watch this for more evidence of the Former President Foments Chronicles.

President Clinton has every right to participate in the process and help his wife, but he keeps getting drawn into these "B" team tactical battles. One is an understandable mistake.  Doing it twice is just dumb.  But these outbursts seem like daily occurrences.  It's beneath him; and it belittles the former president and his wife.  I'm not sure who said it but someone noted over the weekend that he is acting more like a deputy campaign operative than the former leader of the free world.  It looks more like playground politics than inspiring a new generation of leadership.

Can I say, "Told you so."

I think it's kind of funny that one of the institutions most in favor of campaign finance reform now says this in today's paper.

The Constitutional Option?

Remember the "Constitutional Option."  Back in the day (circa 2005) when President Bush could not get judges confirmed in the Senate due to Democratic filibusters, then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist considered a procedural move allowing the confirmation of judges with just 51 votes. In a nutshell Frist maintained the U.S. Constitution provided the Senate the responsibility to "advise and consent" on nominations and that utilizing the filibuster violated this Constitutional responsibility.  Some called it the "nuclear option," because many believed Democrats would retaliate and tie the Senate in procedural knots. As you recall, the so called "Gang of 14" Senators intervened with a compromise and Frist never triggered the "nuclear" (constitutional option).

As th first session of the 110th Congress ends, we also witnessed the triumph of a "constitutional option" of sorts.  We didn't face a government shutdown or stalemate, nor did the Democratic majority win unilateral victories.  On issue after issue -- war funding, the budget and appropriations, energy legislation, the Alternative Minimum Tax and the State Children's Health Insurance Program -- to name a few -- lawmakers enacted compromises.

And in this process, the White House and congressional Republicans had a louder than expected voice in the legislative arena. I write about these compromises here in my weekly Washington Times column, Politics in the City.

Christmas Present for Political Junkies?

Here's more evidence that it's Real Clear Politics    as I mentioned in my last post. This entry over at The National Review's Campaign Spot from earlier in the week lays out an interesting scenario and underscores the wide open nature of the Republican presidential primary. What if??
Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire, Romney wins Michigan, Thompson wins South Carolina; and Giuliani wins Florida.  First five caucuses/primaries -- five different winners!  It probably won't happen because of the momentum factor -- winning in IA or NH could catapult someone to front runner status in the next contest, but who knows.

And I haven't even mentioned the Democratic field.

The 2008 presidential race is an early Christmas gift for political junkies!

RUDY GIULIANI, 2008 HOMEPAGE CAMPAIGN BOX
Giuliani's Nomination Path - Tougher, But Not Blocked
Let me offer a countertheory to the "Rudy is in freefall" storyline offered by Time's Michael Duffy. At the base of it is my longtime theory that Rudy will remain in okay shape until it's a two man race, and that for him to win the nomination, he needs the last remaining Not Rudy candidate to be too bruised to triumph.

Iowa, for now, appears likely to be won by Mike Huckabee. Maybe Romney comes back, but for now, assume the polls don't shift much between now and January 3.

New Hampshire, for now, could be won by Romney, or perhaps McCain. Let's say McCain takes it.

Michigan, for now, could be Romney, could be Giuliani. Let's say Romney wins it.

South Carolina... could be Huckabee, could be Romney, could be the site of Thompson's last stand. Let's say Thompson pounds his Southern themes and sneaks out with one or two percent.

Under that scenario, nobody's the frontrunner by the time they get to Florida, which Rudy is still leading right now. Everybody could (and arguably should)  have a win under their belts. In addition to each one of his rivals controling a faction of the pie, they'll probably have higher disapproval numbers, as they will have been the target of attacks for several weeks as Giuliani faded into the background.

Since he surged, Huckabee has been getting much tougher coverage, as any reader of this blog has seen. Romney's still getting hit from a lot of different directions - his dad and Martin Luther King, his immigration positions, the usual flip-flop charges, etc. If McCain wins New Hampshire, you'll see him get coverage that's much tougher. His foes will start reciting immigrationdeal-campaignfinancereform-gangof14-votedagainstBushtaxcuts over and over again. You'll see every picture he's ever taken with Ted Kennedy dominating the airwaves. If Fred Thompson surges, he'll get knocked around, too. And there's still some possibility of the murder-suicide effect; if any candidate goes too negative on another, the mud splashes on both of them.

So it's possible that by the time we get to Florida, most of the other Big Five have won only one or two states and has higher negatives from several tough primary battles. Rudy can swoop in, win delegate-rich Florida, and then try to execute his big state Super Duper Tuesday strategy, and pound home, electability, electability, electability...

It's not a perfect path to the nomination, but right now, no one has one...

12/20 04:17 PM

Real Clear Politics Time

In my 25 years of watching national politics, I don't remember a presidential race this wide open, exciting and fluid -- on both sides of the aisle. I wrote  about how this uncertainty, mixed with delegate selection procedures, could produce the most exciting political conventions in a long time as well. It's Real Clear Politics  time.  I know that we're in a state of high political alert when the first thing I do everyday and the last thing I do at night is check the Real Clear site.  It's an invaluable tool for all us political mechanics.

Brought to you by McCain-Feingold

One of the biggest problems with the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (McCain-Feingold) is its crippling effect on national political parties. The law opened the door to the creation of a host of unaccountable groups like MoveOn.org. that further coarsen political debate in this country. My column this week in the Washington Times explores this point. Read it here.